Monday, July 02, 2007

Israel's chances to disarm Iran unilaterally

At Henry Farrell's Political Science Weblog, I found this article (published in International Security). Whitney Raas and Austin Long assess Israel's capabilities to destroy Iran's Nuclear Facilities - in quite some detail.
Although I found it quite an interesting piece of reading, I am wondering whether such a study in a public journal is a good idea (assuming Iran has a "International Security" subscription ;) ). Granted, the facts it is based on are public, and the Israelis probably have better intelligence and risk-assessments. On the other hand - insights and conclusions by independent experts might be an interesting read for the Iranian leadership, as their internal assessments might be biased. In addition, the paper provides some hints where weaknesses are - on both sides. Being no military expert, I cannot assess the real relvance of the study. From a political point of view however, more uncertainty i.e. incomplete information on the Iranian side of the chessboard seems desirable if one is interested in a solution that leaves Iran "nuke-less"...

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