Prediction Markets and the French Elections [UPDATE]

Okay, so the race is over, here are the results, taken from TF1, the forecasts of the FTD prediction market and the last Ipsos poll (absolute deviation in brackets):

	Official Result	FTD forecast	Ipsos
Nicolas Sarkozy	31.18	32.00 (0.82)	30.0 (1.18)
Ségolène Royal	25.87	26.36 (0.49)	23.5 (2.37)
François Bayrou	18.57	18.10 (0.47)	17.0 (1.57)
Jean-Marie Le Pen	10.44	14.00 (3.56)	13.5 (3.06)
Others	13.94	9.54 (4.4)	16.0 (2.06)
Root MSE		2.58	2.15

Thus overall performance is quite good, but the high turnout apparently came unexpected and Le Pen's share was overestimated. If i find the time, I will collect the last pre-election survey results for comparison...

UPDATE: Ipsos performed better in terms of MSE, however the accuracy for the two top candidates and Bayrou remains impressive.

My own portfolio performed ok (winning 3%). Some time before the market closed I sold Sarko at 32, and Sego at 27 assuming both to be overvalued (that was close...). I overestimated Le Pen, but that wasn't too costly. However I expected a little more of Bayrou... , didn't lose money, though (bought quite a lot at 17.73, real share: 18.57).